2025 Cannabis Predictions: The Global Medical Cannabis Explosion Continues

A byline by Michael Sassano

2025 is poised for a massive explosion in the global medical cannabis market. Many politicians and regulators have been grappling for years with the best way to legalize and distribute cannabis to their population. Now, it’s clearer than ever that science and popular opinion concur that cannabis is safer than many current pharmaceuticals and tens of millions of people around the world have found comfort in cannabis for what ails them.

A Game-Changer for Medical Cannabis in the US

January of 2024 heralded the most comprehensive and definitive government endorsement for medical cannabis with the release of the now-famous United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) report. This report concluded that cannabis is beneficial for many indications. 

Science Reigns Over Stigma in Rescheduling Debates

In August 2024, the biggest mic-drop moment for medical cannabis yet occurred. The Department of Justice (DOJ) presented a document to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) proposing rescheduling cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. This document, prompted by the HHS report, spells massive change for the U.S. and global medical cannabis industries.

The DOJ concluded that cannabis has a lower potential for abuse and addiction than other Schedule I and II drugs, has a moderate to low risk for physical addiction, and has accepted medical applications. In short, the HHS’s eight-factor analysis found that cannabis does not meet the criteria for Schedule I status, citing its difference from heroin and other dangerous Schedule I substances. They also liked cannabis drawbacks as comparable to coffee usage.

Rescheduling Opens Doors for Global Cannabis

For U.S. cannabis companies, rescheduling would not legalize cannabis at the federal level. However, the legal acceptance of medical applications would undoubtedly send shockwaves through the global medical cannabis community, allowing for expanded research. Rescheduling would also knock out arguments against future cannabis regulatory reforms, reduce penalties for cannabis consumption, and pave the way for reducing the tax burden of Section 280E.

Medical Cannabis Takes Off Worldwide

Many other countries made strides in opening access to medical cannabis in 2024, too. Germany took the decisive stance of decriminalizing cannabis and taking it off the list of narcotics. This move has set Germany on a path to reach 1 billion euros in cannabis sales by late 2025. 

Thailand exceeded $1.2 billion in cannabis sales in 2024 and is beginning to export medical cannabis to Europe. I expect that Thailand will codify medical cannabis into law in 2025. 

Australia and Israel are two other influential cannabis markets, projected to reach $2.5 billion and $370 million in 2025, respectively. Australia leads the way in product choices with more than 1,000 extract and flower SKUs. 

The United Kingdom and Italy are both $300+ million markets. Poland, another major mover, is home to a fast-growing $100+ million market. 

Medical Cannabis Booms With Billions in Sales

The top seven global cannabis markets alone bring in roughly 2 billion euros in total sales. These medical markets have relatively open patient access, with approval for many indications and relatively straightforward prescribing processes. 

Future Movers to Watch in Medical Cannabis

The medical cannabis explosion goes far beyond the markets that have already embraced easier access. 

The global medical cannabis market includes more than 20 medically strict markets, including Ireland, Czechia, Croatia, and many larger countries such as France, Spain, and Brazil. All these countries have started to embrace medical cannabis, introducing regulations in 2024 with the expectation of transformative growth in 2025. 

Ireland, for example, currently has stringent regulations surrounding medical cannabis. The country is concluding its search for answers and, I believe, will likely at least add new categories like pain to the list of prescribable indications. Adding indications would make it easier for doctors to prescribe cannabis, opening access to patients and following the example of other countries with broader access.  

Given the successes of global medical cannabis markets and the endorsement of scientific communities, there is little standing in the way of newer countries’ common concerns about illicit markets and taxable bases.

A Landmark Year Ahead in 2025 for Global Medical Cannabis

For two decades, activists, entrepreneurs, and enthusiasts have been fighting an uphill battle against ignorance and prejudice in their pursuit of medical cannabis reform. Following massive success in major markets like the U.S. and Canada, the tides have shifted dramatically in 2024 toward global medical markets. 

It is becoming harder for anti-cannabis lobbyists to keep a lid on definitive reports on the safety of cannabis when the HHS likens the dangers of cannabis to those of caffeine. It simply isn’t tenable to allow populations to consume opioids and other addictive pharmaceutical products when there is a safer alternative. And there surely is no justification left to support jailing people for cannabis. 

I believe that 2025 will see the rescheduling of cannabis in the U.S., and this momentous move will spark an explosion of regulatory change in global medical cannabis markets, forever altering the international cannabis landscape for the better.

About the author

Michael Sassano, Founder, Interim CEO, and Chairman of the Board for SOMAÍ Pharmaceuticals, a leading EU-GMP vertically integrated Multi-Country Operator (MCO) company with a global footprint of distribution for the largest and most advanced EU GMP-certified cannabinoid-containing pharmaceutical extract portfolio.

Disclaimer: Bylines by external contributors must not reflect the opinion of the editorial team. If you want to contribute as an external expert please reach out to redaktion@krautinvest.de.